V-Lab
Nissui Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.40%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
24.14%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
25.76%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4775 | 6.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1167 | 7.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7911 | 30.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.0355 | 0.98 |
| γ2 | -0.0132 | -0.25 |
| γ3 | -0.0941 | -2.61*** |
| γ4 | 0.1621 | 4.41*** |
| γ5 | -0.1684 | -4.16*** |
| γ6 | 0.1517 | 3.81*** |
| γ7 | -0.1367 | -3.25*** |
| γ8 | 0.0901 | 1.91* |
| γ9 | -0.0269 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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