V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
51.94%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
51.51%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
50.99%
decreased by 1.47%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1825 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1087 | 4.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6675 | 8.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7936 | -6.57*** |
| γ2 | 1.0026 | 4.89*** |
| γ3 | -0.5685 | -2.58*** |
| γ4 | 0.7022 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -0.4965 | -1.59 |
| γ6 | 0.2387 | 1.12 |
| γ7 | -0.1880 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.1218 | 0.90 |
| γ9 | 0.1334 | 1.47 |
| γ10 | -0.2623 | -3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.776
Half-life:
3 days
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