V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
49.91%
increased by 6.32%
1 Week
50.54%
increased by 6.95%
1 Month
51.30%
increased by 7.71%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1826 | 6.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 4.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6721 | 8.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7939 | -6.57*** |
| γ2 | 1.0025 | 4.88*** |
| γ3 | -0.5676 | -2.57** |
| γ4 | 0.7014 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -0.4961 | -1.59 |
| γ6 | 0.2385 | 1.12 |
| γ7 | -0.1882 | -0.98 |
| γ8 | 0.1229 | 0.91 |
| γ9 | 0.1313 | 1.44 |
| γ10 | -0.2610 | -3.61*** |
Persistence:
0.780
Half-life:
3 days
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