V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
48.95%
increased by 6.26%
1 Week
48.24%
increased by 5.55%
1 Month
47.40%
increased by 4.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1851 | 6.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1095 | 4.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6634 | 8.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7785 | -6.52*** |
| γ2 | 0.9813 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.5586 | -2.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.7028 | 2.24** |
| γ5 | -0.5128 | -1.65* |
| γ6 | 0.2673 | 1.26 |
| γ7 | -0.2264 | -1.17 |
| γ8 | 0.1727 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | 0.0779 | 0.88 |
| γ10 | -0.2255 | -3.32*** |
0.773
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1851 | 6.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1095 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6634 | 8.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7785 | -6.52*** |
| γ2 | 0.9813 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.5586 | -2.59*** |
| γ4 | 0.7028 | 2.24** |
| γ5 | -0.5128 | -1.65* |
| γ6 | 0.2673 | 1.26 |
| γ7 | -0.2264 | -1.17 |
| γ8 | 0.1727 | 1.24 |
| γ9 | 0.0779 | 0.88 |
| γ10 | -0.2255 | -3.32*** |
Persistence:
0.773
Half-life:
3 days
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