Guan Chong Bhd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
53.02%
1 Week
53.19%
1 Month
53.86%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 18.8698 | 2.08** |
| αscore | 0.1073 | 14.51*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9930 | 390.48*** |
| νDF | 4.3861 | 5.85*** |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 18.8698 | 2.08** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1073 | 14.51*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 390.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.3861 | 5.85*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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