V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
809,955.44%
increased by 114,610.14%
1 Week
779,398.24%
increased by 84,052.94%
1 Month
675,109.24%
decreased by 20,236.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 11.8931 | 23.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0968 | 110.46*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9615 | 1,131.22*** |
| νDF | 2.0000 |
0.962
Persistence18d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.8931 | 23.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 110.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9615 | 1,131.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0000 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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