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Guan Chong Bhd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

53.02%

increased by 4.59%

1 Week

53.19%

increased by 4.76%

1 Month

53.86%

increased by 5.43%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guan Chong Bhd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 15, 2005 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 daysv = 4.39 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run18.8698
2.08**
αscore0.1073
14.51***
βpersistence0.9930
390.48***
νDF4.3861
5.85***

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

18.8698
2.08**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1073
14.51***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9930
390.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.3861
5.85***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days