V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
44.31%
increased by 0.71%
1 Week
44.35%
increased by 0.75%
1 Month
44.51%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 233 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0302 | 8.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0168 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9777 | 825.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0049 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
233 days
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