Guan Chong Bhd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
42.05%
increased by 0.68%
1 Week
42.10%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
42.31%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 227 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~227 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0304 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0167 | 1.99** |
| βGARCH | 0.9777 | 205.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.0050 | 0.34 |
0.997
Persistence227d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0304 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0167 | 1.99** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9777 | 205.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0050 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
227 days
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