V-Lab
Guan Chong Bhd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
41.16%
increased by 3.72%
1 Week
42.53%
increased by 5.09%
1 Month
44.72%
increased by 7.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 172% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0552 | 10.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7416 | 31.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0950 | 6.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0280 | 0.95 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0081 | 1.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9885 | 87.22*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
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