Guan Chong Bhd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.77%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
44.96%
increased by 1.01%
1 Month
45.79%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2005 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 165% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 10.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7658 | 36.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0869 | 6.42*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0309 | 1.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0088 | 1.07 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9874 | 86.38*** |
Persistence:
0.862
Half-life:
5 days
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