V-Lab
Ksp Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
115.35%
increased by 17.43%
1 Week
112.92%
increased by 15.00%
1 Month
104.01%
increased by 6.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 11, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6979 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3184 | 1.89* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6603 | 25.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.0273 | -0.46 |
| γ2 | 2.2168 | 0.48 |
| γ3 | -11.7226 | -2.61*** |
| γ4 | 40.4065 | 10.06*** |
| γ5 | -75.9172 | -19.21*** |
| γ6 | 93.3624 | 31.70*** |
| γ7 | -80.7039 | -15.58*** |
| γ8 | 53.2053 | 6.39*** |
| γ9 | -30.4517 | -4.18*** |
| γ10 | 13.5363 | 3.97*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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