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V-Lab

Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

48.58%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Week

55.62%

increased by 6.13%

1 Month

65.01%

increased by 15.52%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6581
1.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2129
4.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6193
8.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ119.3168
2.23**
γ2-33.1421
-3.05***
γ317.7646
3.38***
γ4-4.4416
-0.81
γ50.8186
0.19
γ60.0931
0.02
γ7-1.7948
-0.32
γ88.9496
1.94*
γ9-16.0609
-6.26***
γ1010.8779
4.76***

Persistence:

0.832

Half-life:

4 days