V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
133.00%
decreased by 27.37%
1 Week
122.42%
decreased by 37.95%
1 Month
103.80%
decreased by 56.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6277 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1986 | 4.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6356 | 8.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 17.7106 | 1.99** |
| γ2 | -30.7573 | -2.77*** |
| γ3 | 16.9311 | 3.51*** |
| γ4 | -4.2627 | -0.85 |
| γ5 | 0.3694 | 0.09 |
| γ6 | 0.3762 | 0.10 |
| γ7 | -0.3469 | -0.06 |
| γ8 | 5.1748 | 0.81 |
| γ9 | -11.9638 | -2.70*** |
| γ10 | 8.5790 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
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