V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
89.96%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
99.97%
increased by 6.13%
1 Month
113.51%
increased by 19.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6325 | 1.00 |
| αARCH | 0.2024 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6267 | 8.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 17.8564 | 2.05** |
| γ2 | -31.0628 | -2.86*** |
| γ3 | 17.2779 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -4.6316 | -0.92 |
| γ5 | 0.7045 | 0.17 |
| γ6 | 0.1018 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | -0.1009 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | 4.8980 | 0.77 |
| γ9 | -11.6893 | -2.63*** |
| γ10 | 8.3273 | 2.95*** |
0.829
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6325 | 1.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2024 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6267 | 8.15*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 17.8564 | 2.05** |
| γ2 | -31.0628 | -2.86*** |
| γ3 | 17.2779 | 3.58*** |
| γ4 | -4.6316 | -0.92 |
| γ5 | 0.7045 | 0.17 |
| γ6 | 0.1018 | 0.03 |
| γ7 | -0.1009 | -0.02 |
| γ8 | 4.8980 | 0.77 |
| γ9 | -11.6893 | -2.63*** |
| γ10 | 8.3273 | 2.95*** |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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