V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
47.16%
decreased by 3.56%
1 Week
50.65%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
55.79%
increased by 5.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6569 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2092 | 4.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6310 | 9.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 18.7494 | 2.14** |
| γ2 | -32.2612 | -2.95*** |
| γ3 | 17.3189 | 3.37*** |
| γ4 | -4.1017 | -0.76 |
| γ5 | 0.3365 | 0.08 |
| γ6 | 0.4864 | 0.12 |
| γ7 | -1.6191 | -0.28 |
| γ8 | 8.2295 | 1.58 |
| γ9 | -15.7787 | -5.51*** |
| γ10 | 11.2150 | 5.89*** |
Persistence:
0.840
Half-life:
4 days
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