V-Lab
Sui Southern Gas Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
36.94%
decreased by 2.18%
1 Week
38.73%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
42.44%
increased by 3.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4695 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1470 | 10.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7568 | 35.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 0.55 |
| γ2 | 0.0026 | 0.41 |
| γ3 | -0.0075 | -2.67*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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