Sui Southern Gas Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.40%
decreased by 3.16%
1 Week
42.27%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Month
44.13%
decreased by 0.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4701 | 7.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1475 | 10.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7559 | 35.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0025 | 0.54 |
| γ2 | 0.0026 | 0.40 |
| γ3 | -0.0075 | -2.64*** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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