Sui Southern Gas Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.80%
decreased by 6.32%
1 Week
41.72%
decreased by 5.40%
1 Month
44.17%
decreased by 2.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1993 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.4158 | 9.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1610 | 28.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9437 | 147.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5302 | 12.98*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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