V-Lab
Sui Southern Gas Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
59.20%
increased by 14.68%
1 Week
58.18%
increased by 13.66%
1 Month
55.20%
increased by 10.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 3, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 4.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.3971 | 2.35** |
| αARCH | 0.1598 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9441 | 37.33*** |
| νDF | 4.5340 | 3.24*** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.3971 | 2.35** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1598 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9441 | 37.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5340 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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