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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

63.75%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Week

69.37%

increased by 5.48%

1 Month

71.69%

increased by 7.80%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9033
1.78*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1594
1.98**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3078
1.05
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-21.4043
-1.03
γ262.4617
2.24**
γ3-69.8782
-5.21***
γ434.1914
3.93***

Persistence:

0.467

Half-life:

1 days