V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
36.40%
increased by 3.33%
1 Week
33.64%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
32.22%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0176 | 1.98** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1771 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3278 | 1.27 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -10.2458 | -0.63 |
| γ2 | 43.8596 | 1.97** |
| γ3 | -67.5207 | -6.54*** |
| γ4 | 46.0461 | 8.13*** |
Persistence:
0.505
Half-life:
1 days
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