Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
63.75%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
69.37%
increased by 5.48%
1 Month
71.69%
increased by 7.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9033 | 1.78* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1594 | 1.98** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3078 | 1.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -21.4043 | -1.03 |
| γ2 | 62.4617 | 2.24** |
| γ3 | -69.8782 | -5.21*** |
| γ4 | 34.1914 | 3.93*** |
Persistence:
0.467
Half-life:
1 days
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