V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
52.60%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
54.06%
increased by 0.46%
1 Month
54.75%
increased by 1.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9531 | 1.84* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1698 | 2.17** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3379 | 1.31 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -15.9773 | -0.86 |
| γ2 | 53.9614 | 2.17** |
| γ3 | -70.7328 | -6.33*** |
| γ4 | 42.2499 | 6.65*** |
Persistence:
0.508
Half-life:
1 days
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