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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

36.40%

increased by 3.33%

1 Week

33.64%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

32.22%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0176
1.98**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1771
2.24**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3278
1.27
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-10.2458
-0.63
γ243.8596
1.97**
γ3-67.5207
-6.54***
γ446.0461
8.13***

Persistence:

0.505

Half-life:

1 days