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V-Lab
V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

30.41%

increased by 2.31%

1 Week

29.86%

increased by 1.76%

1 Month

29.57%

increased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1149
2.14**
αARCH0.1963
2.33**
βGARCH0.3234
1.28
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-4.0312
-0.27
γ231.8692
1.56
γ3-60.2321
-6.14***
γ445.5379
8.06***

0.520

Persistence

1d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1149
2.14**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1963
2.33**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3234
1.28
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-4.0312
-0.27
γ231.8692
1.56
γ3-60.2321
-6.14***
γ445.5379
8.06***

Persistence:

0.520

Half-life:

1 days