V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
29.76%
decreased by 3.15%
1 Week
30.81%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Month
31.31%
decreased by 1.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0630 | 2.06** |
| αARCH | 0.1865 | 2.31** |
| βGARCH | 0.3232 | 1.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -7.3016 | -0.47 |
| γ2 | 38.2693 | 1.80* |
| γ3 | -64.5373 | -6.39*** |
| γ4 | 46.1603 | 8.22*** |
0.510
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0630 | 2.06** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1865 | 2.31** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3232 | 1.26 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -7.3016 | -0.47 |
| γ2 | 38.2693 | 1.80* |
| γ3 | -64.5373 | -6.39*** |
| γ4 | 46.1603 | 8.22*** |
Persistence:
0.510
Half-life:
1 days
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