V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
41.17%
decreased by 2.54%
1 Week
43.83%
increased by 0.12%
1 Month
45.05%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9679 | 1.88* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1674 | 2.15** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3333 | 1.27 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -14.4959 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 51.4633 | 2.14** |
| γ3 | -70.1443 | -6.50*** |
| γ4 | 43.2338 | 7.31*** |
Persistence:
0.501
Half-life:
1 days
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