Avanza Bank Holding AB Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.99%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
31.50%
increased by 2.24%
1 Month
32.59%
increased by 3.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9251 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1715 | 2.03** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3171 | 1.04 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -18.7175 | -0.87 |
| γ2 | 55.8101 | 1.88* |
| γ3 | -56.9042 | -3.02*** |
| γ4 | -2.3376 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.489
Half-life:
1 days
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