V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
34.00%
increased by 5.85%
1 Week
32.06%
increased by 3.91%
1 Month
30.37%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 362% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 362% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0642 | 6.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.2323 | 7.86*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.7408 | 7.84*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4113 | 5.97*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.180
Persistence0d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0642 | 6.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2323 | 7.86*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.7408 | 7.84*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4113 | 5.97*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.180
Half-life:
0 days
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