Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
27.91%
1 Week
28.71%
1 Month
31.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1005 | 2.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7770 | 28.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1005 | -2.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0815 | 2.96*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7879 | 45.99*** |
Persistence:
0.827
Half-life:
4 days
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