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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

27.91%

decreased by 0.95%

1 Week

28.71%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

31.11%

increased by 2.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1005
2.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7770
28.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1005
-2.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0815
2.96***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7879
45.99***

Persistence:

0.827

Half-life:

4 days