V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
31.12%
1 Week
31.01%
1 Month
31.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.0784 | 4.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7993 | 7.16*** |
| γleverage | -0.0784 | -5.59*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6850 | 6.02*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0637 | 3.21*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7488 | 17.53*** |
0.839
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0784 | 4.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7993 | 7.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0784 | -5.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6850 | 6.02*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0637 | 3.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7488 | 17.53*** |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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