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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

30.65%

decreased by 4.79%

1 Week

32.04%

decreased by 3.40%

1 Month

32.68%

decreased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0600
4.11***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0004
0.06
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2591
6.62***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.9403
3.68***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4027
1.93*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.190

Half-life:

0 days