V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
30.65%
decreased by 4.79%
1 Week
32.04%
decreased by 3.40%
1 Month
32.68%
decreased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0600 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0004 | 0.06 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2591 | 6.62*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9403 | 3.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4027 | 1.93* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.190
Half-life:
0 days
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