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Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

31.12%

increased by 2.73%

1 Week

31.01%

increased by 2.62%

1 Month

31.03%

increased by 2.64%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.0784
4.98***
βGARCH0.7993
7.16***
γleverage-0.0784
-5.59***
λ₁tau intercept0.6850
6.02***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0637
3.21***
λ₃tau persistence0.7488
17.53***

0.839

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0784
4.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7993
7.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0784
-5.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.6850
6.02***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0637
3.21***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7488
17.53***

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days