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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

34.06%

decreased by 2.75%

1 Week

36.66%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Month

45.27%

increased by 8.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 116% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3035
5.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2254
15.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7746
66.32***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2208
2.87***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7142
12.38***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days