Avanza Bank Holding AB APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.06%
decreased by 2.75%
1 Week
36.66%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
45.27%
increased by 8.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 116% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.71 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3035 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2254 | 15.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7746 | 66.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2208 | 2.87*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7142 | 12.38*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other Avanza Bank Holding AB Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities