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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

32.52%

decreased by 2.73%

1 Week

35.82%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

46.76%

increased by 11.51%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4480
6.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2571
15.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7429
58.42***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-