Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
42.29%
increased by 10.16%
1 Week
44.53%
increased by 12.40%
1 Month
51.47%
increased by 19.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 4.29 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 23.8144 | 1.26 |
| αscore | 0.2327 | 6.97*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9764 | 55.11*** |
| νDF | 4.2884 | 2.86*** |
0.976
Persistence29d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 23.8144 | 1.26 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.2327 | 6.97*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9764 | 55.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2884 | 2.86*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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