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Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

42.29%

increased by 10.16%

1 Week

44.53%

increased by 12.40%

1 Month

51.47%

increased by 19.34%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 29 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 29 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 29-day half-lifev = 4.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run23.8144
1.26
αscore0.2327
6.97***
βpersistence0.9764
55.11***
νDF4.2884
2.86***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

23.8144
1.26
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.2327
6.97***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9764
55.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2884
2.86***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days