V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
42.30%
increased by 9.90%
1 Week
44.46%
increased by 12.06%
1 Month
51.20%
increased by 18.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 23.7350 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.2260 | 7.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9772 | 57.49*** |
| νDF | 4.2379 | 2.94*** |
0.977
Persistence30d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 23.7350 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2260 | 7.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9772 | 57.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2379 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
Other Avanza Bank Holding AB Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities