V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
60.35%
increased by 6.92%
1 Week
61.48%
increased by 8.05%
1 Month
65.25%
increased by 11.82%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 27.7513 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2319 | 31.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9791 | 264.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9168 | 14.56*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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