V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
64.98%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
65.96%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
69.28%
increased by 4.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 30.1516 | 5.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2256 | 33.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9807 | 295.04*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6640 | 17.13*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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