Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.42%
decreased by 4.37%
1 Week
34.15%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Month
45.04%
increased by 10.25%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.2444 | 5.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2228 | 34.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9830 | 349.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.4729 | 21.50*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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