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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

30.42%

decreased by 4.37%

1 Week

34.15%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Month

45.04%

increased by 10.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.2444
5.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2228
34.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9830
349.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.4729
21.50***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days