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Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

42.30%

increased by 9.90%

1 Week

44.46%

increased by 12.06%

1 Month

51.20%

increased by 18.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 30 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 30 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.24 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 30-day half-lifev = 4.24 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst23.7350
1.27
αARCH0.2260
7.06***
βGARCH0.9772
57.49***
νDF4.2379
2.94***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

23.7350
1.27
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2260
7.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9772
57.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.2379
2.94***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days