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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

60.35%

increased by 6.92%

1 Week

61.48%

increased by 8.05%

1 Month

65.25%

increased by 11.82%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

27.7513
5.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2319
31.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9791
264.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9168
14.56***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days