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V-Lab

Avanza Bank Holding AB GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

44.50%

increased by 0.60%

1 Week

46.65%

increased by 2.75%

1 Month

54.40%

increased by 10.50%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Avanza Bank Holding AB GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 7, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 102% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3886
6.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1634
5.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7532
67.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1668
2.51**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days