V-Lab
Avanza Bank Holding AB GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
47.48%
1 Week
49.57%
1 Month
57.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 7, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 94% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4015 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1692 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7509 | 65.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1596 | 2.30** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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