Madala Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
44.46%
increased by 2.99%
1 Week
45.72%
increased by 4.25%
1 Month
48.31%
increased by 6.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 25% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 4.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1417 | 26.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7565 | 46.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0574 | -4.09*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9420 | 16.96*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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