V-Lab
Madala Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
46.43%
1 Week
47.87%
1 Month
49.19%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 68% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2064 | 25.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4547 | 6.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0834 | -10.43*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.3809 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3012 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1111 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.619
Half-life:
1 days
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