Madala Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
45.92%
1 Week
46.17%
1 Month
47.90%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 67% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2066 | 24.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4568 | 6.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0831 | -10.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 5.4195 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2999 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1101 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.622
Half-life:
1 days
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