Madala Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.70%
increased by 2.36%
1 Week
48.35%
increased by 4.01%
1 Month
51.35%
increased by 7.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1467 | 4.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1661 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7100 | 18.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0955 | 0.32 |
| γ2 | -0.0433 | -0.10 |
| γ3 | 0.3653 | 1.31 |
| γ4 | -0.9385 | -3.03*** |
| γ5 | 0.8990 | 2.18** |
| γ6 | -0.7484 | -1.30 |
| γ7 | 0.7114 | 1.30 |
| γ8 | -0.5549 | -1.65* |
| γ9 | 0.3048 | 1.51 |
| γ10 | -0.1142 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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