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V-Lab

Madala Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

46.70%

increased by 2.36%

1 Week

48.35%

increased by 4.01%

1 Month

51.35%

increased by 7.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Madala Holdings Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 29, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1467
4.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1661
8.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7100
18.39***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0955
0.32
γ2-0.0433
-0.10
γ30.3653
1.31
γ4-0.9385
-3.03***
γ50.8990
2.18**
γ6-0.7484
-1.30
γ70.7114
1.30
γ8-0.5549
-1.65*
γ90.3048
1.51
γ10-0.1142
-0.90

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days