V-Lab
Madala Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
45.97%
increased by 1.44%
1 Week
47.46%
increased by 2.93%
1 Month
50.24%
increased by 5.71%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1570 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1658 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7135 | 18.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0774 | 0.26 |
| γ2 | -0.0005 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.3134 | 1.17 |
| γ4 | -0.8939 | -3.01*** |
| γ5 | 0.8716 | 2.20** |
| γ6 | -0.7301 | -1.29 |
| γ7 | 0.6956 | 1.25 |
| γ8 | -0.5361 | -1.53 |
| γ9 | 0.2759 | 1.31 |
| γ10 | -0.0860 | -0.66 |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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