Madala Holdings Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
43.27%
increased by 2.57%
1 Week
44.00%
increased by 3.30%
1 Month
45.35%
increased by 4.65%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 29, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2097 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1667 | 8.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7068 | 18.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.1458 | 0.49 |
| γ2 | -0.1280 | -0.30 |
| γ3 | 0.4249 | 1.54 |
| γ4 | -0.9801 | -3.21*** |
| γ5 | 0.9268 | 2.28** |
| γ6 | -0.7692 | -1.35 |
| γ7 | 0.7370 | 1.36 |
| γ8 | -0.6039 | -1.80* |
| γ9 | 0.4049 | 1.88* |
| γ10 | -0.3530 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.874
Half-life:
5 days
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