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V-Lab

BlockFin Holdings Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026

1 Day

90.85%

decreased by 1.45%

1 Week

96.75%

increased by 4.45%

1 Month

110.40%

increased by 18.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5373
2.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1206
3.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8075
17.54***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0291
0.10
γ2-0.1462
-0.36
γ30.2450
1.06
γ4-0.0161
-0.07
γ5-0.4750
-1.89*
γ61.0405
4.38***
γ7-1.3662
-5.24***
γ81.0891
2.33**

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days