V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 4th, 2026
1 Day
90.85%
decreased by 1.45%
1 Week
96.75%
increased by 4.45%
1 Month
110.40%
increased by 18.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5373 | 2.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1206 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8075 | 17.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0291 | 0.10 |
| γ2 | -0.1462 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | 0.2450 | 1.06 |
| γ4 | -0.0161 | -0.07 |
| γ5 | -0.4750 | -1.89* |
| γ6 | 1.0405 | 4.38*** |
| γ7 | -1.3662 | -5.24*** |
| γ8 | 1.0891 | 2.33** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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