V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
82.38%
1 Week
82.67%
1 Month
83.84%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1873777 trading days (~7435.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 2.19 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1458 | 2.66*** |
| αARCH | 0.1285 | 7.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8616 | 53.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0021 | -0.04 |
| δpower | 2.1920 | 8.63*** |
1.000
Persistence1873777d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1458 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 53.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -0.04 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.1920 | 8.63*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1873777 days
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