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BlockFin Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

68.56%

decreased by 5.95%

1 Week

68.59%

decreased by 5.92%

1 Month

68.68%

decreased by 5.83%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~98 daysv = 2.90 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst19.5485
1.56
αARCH0.0749
17.49***
βGARCH0.9929
243.72***
νDF2.8980
19.12***

0.993

Persistence

98d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.5485
1.56
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0749
17.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9929
243.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8980
19.12***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

98 days