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BlockFin Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

89.46%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Week

89.23%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Month

88.33%

decreased by 3.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026
Illiquid Asset

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~101 daysv = 2.89 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst19.6225
1.58
αARCH0.0735
17.71***
βGARCH0.9932
257.10***
νDF2.8930
19.67***

0.993

Persistence

101d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.6225
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0735
17.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9932
257.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.8930
19.67***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

101 days