V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
89.46%
1 Week
89.23%
1 Month
88.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 101 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 19.6225 | 1.58 |
| αARCH | 0.0735 | 17.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9932 | 257.10*** |
| νDF | 2.8930 | 19.67*** |
0.993
Persistence101d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.6225 | 1.58 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0735 | 17.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 257.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.8930 | 19.67*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
101 days
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