V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
79.83%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
84.52%
increased by 3.08%
1 Month
96.39%
increased by 14.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1320 | 14.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8189 | 60.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0112 | -0.83 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0119 | 1.79* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0162 | 5.08*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9838 | 257.07*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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