V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
101.57%
decreased by 5.63%
1 Week
102.84%
decreased by 4.36%
1 Month
107.49%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Illiquid Asset
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.1340 | 3.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8168 | 18.42*** |
| γleverage | -0.0132 | -0.22 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0121 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0164 | 1.54 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9836 | 81.33*** |
0.944
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1340 | 3.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8168 | 18.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0132 | -0.22 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0121 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0164 | 1.54 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9836 | 81.33*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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