V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
98.17%
decreased by 5.90%
1 Week
98.26%
decreased by 5.81%
1 Month
98.48%
decreased by 5.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5270 | 2.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.1216 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8014 | 17.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.1097 | -0.27 |
| γ3 | 0.2327 | 1.02 |
| γ4 | -0.0286 | -0.13 |
| γ5 | -0.4311 | -1.77* |
| γ6 | 0.9547 | 4.22*** |
| γ7 | -1.2227 | -5.31*** |
| γ8 | 0.7670 | 3.83*** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5270 | 2.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1216 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8014 | 17.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0046 | 0.02 |
| γ2 | -0.1097 | -0.27 |
| γ3 | 0.2327 | 1.02 |
| γ4 | -0.0286 | -0.13 |
| γ5 | -0.4311 | -1.77* |
| γ6 | 0.9547 | 4.22*** |
| γ7 | -1.2227 | -5.31*** |
| γ8 | 0.7670 | 3.83*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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