V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
79.55%
decreased by 1.32%
1 Week
84.14%
increased by 3.27%
1 Month
94.78%
increased by 13.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5312 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8064 | 17.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0133 | 0.04 |
| γ2 | -0.1232 | -0.30 |
| γ3 | 0.2361 | 1.03 |
| γ4 | -0.0190 | -0.09 |
| γ5 | -0.4530 | -1.82* |
| γ6 | 0.9787 | 4.24*** |
| γ7 | -1.2225 | -5.10*** |
| γ8 | 0.7426 | 3.63*** |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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