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V-Lab

BlockFin Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

72.10%

decreased by 1.49%

1 Week

77.75%

increased by 4.16%

1 Month

90.29%

increased by 16.70%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.5283
2.80***
αARCH0.1211
3.63***
βGARCH0.8027
17.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0092
0.03
γ2-0.1171
-0.29
γ30.2354
1.03
γ4-0.0252
-0.11
γ5-0.4403
-1.79*
γ60.9675
4.24***
γ7-1.2331
-5.24***
γ80.7706
3.77***

0.924

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5283
2.80***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1211
3.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8027
17.11***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0092
0.03
γ2-0.1171
-0.29
γ30.2354
1.03
γ4-0.0252
-0.11
γ5-0.4403
-1.79*
γ60.9675
4.24***
γ7-1.2331
-5.24***
γ80.7706
3.77***

Persistence:

0.924

Half-life:

9 days