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V-Lab

BlockFin Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

79.55%

decreased by 1.32%

1 Week

84.14%

increased by 3.27%

1 Month

94.78%

increased by 13.91%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5312
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1201
3.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8064
17.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0133
0.04
γ2-0.1232
-0.30
γ30.2361
1.03
γ4-0.0190
-0.09
γ5-0.4530
-1.82*
γ60.9787
4.24***
γ7-1.2225
-5.10***
γ80.7426
3.63***

Persistence:

0.926

Half-life:

9 days