V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
72.10%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
77.75%
increased by 4.16%
1 Month
90.29%
increased by 16.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5283 | 2.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1211 | 3.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8027 | 17.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0092 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1171 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.2354 | 1.03 |
| γ4 | -0.0252 | -0.11 |
| γ5 | -0.4403 | -1.79* |
| γ6 | 0.9675 | 4.24*** |
| γ7 | -1.2331 | -5.24*** |
| γ8 | 0.7706 | 3.77*** |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5283 | 2.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1211 | 3.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8027 | 17.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0092 | 0.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1171 | -0.29 |
| γ3 | 0.2354 | 1.03 |
| γ4 | -0.0252 | -0.11 |
| γ5 | -0.4403 | -1.79* |
| γ6 | 0.9675 | 4.24*** |
| γ7 | -1.2331 | -5.24*** |
| γ8 | 0.7706 | 3.77*** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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