V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
18.92%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
18.87%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Month
18.74%
decreased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2609 | 7.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0498 | 6.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9052 | 63.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0596 | 1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0035 | 0.04 |
| γ3 | -0.1762 | -3.06*** |
| γ4 | 0.1713 | 3.92*** |
| γ5 | -0.0404 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | -0.0700 | -1.69* |
| γ7 | 0.0868 | 2.11** |
| γ8 | -0.0399 | -1.03 |
| γ9 | -0.0055 | -0.12 |
| γ10 | 0.0208 | 0.49 |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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