V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.80%
increased by 0.22%
1 Week
17.84%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
17.96%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2781 | 7.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0517 | 6.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9003 | 60.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0590 | 1.07 |
| γ2 | 0.0060 | 0.07 |
| γ3 | -0.1784 | -3.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.1697 | 3.96*** |
| γ5 | -0.0351 | -0.87 |
| γ6 | -0.0763 | -1.90* |
| γ7 | 0.0910 | 2.30** |
| γ8 | -0.0405 | -1.07 |
| γ9 | -0.0087 | -0.20 |
| γ10 | 0.0248 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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