V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.58%
increased by 4.59%
1 Week
21.32%
increased by 4.33%
1 Month
20.51%
increased by 3.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2864 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0509 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9024 | 61.76*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0626 | 1.11 |
| γ2 | 0.0004 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.1752 | -3.05*** |
| γ4 | 0.1681 | 3.86*** |
| γ5 | -0.0349 | -0.85 |
| γ6 | -0.0760 | -1.86* |
| γ7 | 0.0907 | 2.26** |
| γ8 | -0.0404 | -1.06 |
| γ9 | -0.0084 | -0.19 |
| γ10 | 0.0246 | 0.58 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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