V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.08%
increased by 0.35%
1 Week
18.10%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
18.17%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2620 | 7.03*** |
| αARCH | 0.0499 | 6.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9046 | 62.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0567 | 1.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0085 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -0.1798 | -3.20*** |
| γ4 | 0.1744 | 4.05*** |
| γ5 | -0.0431 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.0688 | -1.67* |
| γ7 | 0.0884 | 2.15** |
| γ8 | -0.0439 | -1.13 |
| γ9 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
| γ10 | 0.0188 | 0.45 |
0.954
Persistence15d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2620 | 7.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9046 | 62.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0567 | 1.03 |
| γ2 | 0.0085 | 0.10 |
| γ3 | -0.1798 | -3.20*** |
| γ4 | 0.1744 | 4.05*** |
| γ5 | -0.0431 | -1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.0688 | -1.67* |
| γ7 | 0.0884 | 2.15** |
| γ8 | -0.0439 | -1.13 |
| γ9 | -0.0015 | -0.03 |
| γ10 | 0.0188 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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