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V-Lab

Aya Gold & Silver Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026

1 Day

87.88%

decreased by 4.17%

1 Week

85.70%

decreased by 6.35%

1 Month

79.31%

decreased by 12.74%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aya Gold & Silver Inc S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2008 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4118
6.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0742
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8687
23.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0363
2.21**
γ2-0.0594
-2.35**
γ30.0349
2.56**

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days