V-Lab
Aya Gold & Silver Inc Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
69.63%
decreased by 3.16%
1 Week
69.13%
decreased by 3.66%
1 Month
67.70%
decreased by 5.09%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4101 | 6.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0734 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8695 | 23.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0361 | 2.22** |
| γ2 | -0.0592 | -2.35** |
| γ3 | 0.0348 | 2.56** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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