Aya Gold & Silver Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
81.65%
decreased by 1.72%
1 Week
82.09%
decreased by 1.28%
1 Month
83.61%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 183% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7067 | 10.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0334 | 10.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9149 | 175.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0610 | 7.09*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
Other Aya Gold & Silver Inc Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on International Equities