Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
95.80%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
95.08%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Month
92.78%
decreased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.8928 | 7.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0555 | 18.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9623 | 157.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5871 | 8.95*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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