V-Lab
Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
86.57%
decreased by 4.89%
1 Week
86.48%
decreased by 4.98%
1 Month
86.18%
decreased by 5.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 28.8345 | 7.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 18.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9634 | 162.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6081 | 8.99*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
19 days
Other Aya Gold & Silver Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities