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Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

95.80%

decreased by 0.64%

1 Week

95.08%

decreased by 1.36%

1 Month

92.78%

decreased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 18 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 18 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

28.8928
7.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0555
18.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9623
157.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.5871
8.95***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days