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Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

86.57%

decreased by 4.89%

1 Week

86.48%

decreased by 4.98%

1 Month

86.18%

decreased by 5.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aya Gold & Silver Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 19 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 19 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

28.8345
7.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0547
18.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9634
162.46***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6081
8.99***

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

19 days