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V-Lab

Aya Gold & Silver Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

81.92%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

84.59%

increased by 0.44%

1 Month

85.42%

increased by 1.27%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Aya Gold & Silver Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0378
6.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6737
25.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0894
5.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

8.6819
0.35
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6770
0.31
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.756

Half-life:

2 days