V-Lab
Aya Gold & Silver Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
75.02%
decreased by 2.16%
1 Week
79.33%
increased by 2.15%
1 Month
83.22%
increased by 6.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 241% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 6.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6711 | 25.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0906 | 5.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.6790 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6779 | 0.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.754
Half-life:
2 days
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