Aya Gold & Silver Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
81.92%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Week
84.59%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
85.42%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 236% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6737 | 25.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0894 | 5.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 8.6819 | 0.35 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6770 | 0.31 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.756
Half-life:
2 days
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