V-Lab
Giant Biogene Holding Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
48.19%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
49.28%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
50.85%
increased by 2.81%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3797 | 7.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 2.05** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7701 | 7.16*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.4047 | 3.27*** |
| γ2 | -0.5000 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.823
Half-life:
4 days
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