V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.91%
1 Week
19.98%
1 Month
20.22%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3123 | 1.07 |
| αARCH | 0.0435 | 7.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9930 | 145.32*** |
| νDF | 5.4885 | 1.72* |
0.993
Persistence98d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3123 | 1.07 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 7.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 145.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4885 | 1.72* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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