V-Lab
Henkel AG & Co KGaA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.58%
increased by 0.39%
1 Week
20.63%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
20.84%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 98 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3199 | 4.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0437 | 31.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9930 | 580.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4879 | 6.92*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
98 days
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