V-Lab
LANXESS AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
39.38%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
40.31%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
42.93%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 06:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6860 | 6.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0706 | 5.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8823 | 43.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0409 | -4.05*** |
| γ2 | 0.0684 | 4.74*** |
| γ3 | -0.0395 | -5.39*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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