V-Lab
LANXESS AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
43.17%
increased by 0.83%
1 Week
43.71%
increased by 1.37%
1 Month
45.28%
increased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2005 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6879 | 6.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0700 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8831 | 43.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0400 | -4.06*** |
| γ2 | 0.0671 | 4.78*** |
| γ3 | -0.0390 | -5.49*** |
0.953
Persistence14d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6879 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0700 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8831 | 43.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0400 | -4.06*** |
| γ2 | 0.0671 | 4.78*** |
| γ3 | -0.0390 | -5.49*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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