LANXESS AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
49.00%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
48.80%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
48.06%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2005 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 5.70 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.1148 | 1.30 |
| αscore | 0.0545 | 7.54*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9889 | 105.16*** |
| νDF | 5.6962 | 1.55 |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.1148 | 1.30 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0545 | 7.54*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 105.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6962 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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