V-Lab
COMSYS Holdings Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
31.84%
increased by 6.08%
1 Week
30.65%
increased by 4.89%
1 Month
27.60%
increased by 1.84%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4020 | 5.48*** |
| αARCH | 0.1199 | 7.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7955 | 30.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0495 | -1.58 |
| γ2 | 0.1308 | 2.96*** |
| γ3 | -0.1447 | -5.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.0851 | 3.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.0306 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | 0.0136 | 0.56 |
| γ7 | -0.0047 | -0.21 |
| γ8 | 0.0041 | 0.25 |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4020 | 5.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1199 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7955 | 30.96*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0495 | -1.58 |
| γ2 | 0.1308 | 2.96*** |
| γ3 | -0.1447 | -5.33*** |
| γ4 | 0.0851 | 3.55*** |
| γ5 | -0.0306 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | 0.0136 | 0.56 |
| γ7 | -0.0047 | -0.21 |
| γ8 | 0.0041 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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