V-Lab
adidas AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
30.80%
increased by 0.27%
1 Week
31.65%
increased by 1.12%
1 Month
33.44%
increased by 2.91%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9215 | 10.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8391 | 24.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0389 | -1.40 |
| γ2 | -0.0009 | -0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.1229 | 3.50*** |
| γ4 | -0.1471 | -3.69*** |
| γ5 | 0.0965 | 2.13** |
| γ6 | -0.0330 | -0.87 |
| γ7 | -0.0043 | -0.14 |
| γ8 | 0.0012 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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