V-Lab
adidas AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
33.09%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
33.75%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Month
35.11%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9272 | 10.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0615 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8345 | 23.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0383 | -1.42 |
| γ2 | -0.0004 | -0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.1209 | 3.52*** |
| γ4 | -0.1457 | -3.70*** |
| γ5 | 0.0963 | 2.12** |
| γ6 | -0.0341 | -0.89 |
| γ7 | -0.0009 | -0.03 |
| γ8 | -0.0032 | -0.14 |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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