V-Lab
adidas AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
31.43%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
32.34%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
34.20%
increased by 2.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9363 | 10.53*** |
| αARCH | 0.0617 | 5.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8331 | 23.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0364 | -1.36 |
| γ2 | -0.0028 | -0.07 |
| γ3 | 0.1214 | 3.57*** |
| γ4 | -0.1460 | -3.72*** |
| γ5 | 0.0962 | 2.11** |
| γ6 | -0.0328 | -0.84 |
| γ7 | -0.0038 | -0.12 |
| γ8 | -0.0003 | -0.01 |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9363 | 10.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0617 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8331 | 23.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0364 | -1.36 |
| γ2 | -0.0028 | -0.07 |
| γ3 | 0.1214 | 3.57*** |
| γ4 | -0.1460 | -3.72*** |
| γ5 | 0.0962 | 2.11** |
| γ6 | -0.0328 | -0.84 |
| γ7 | -0.0038 | -0.12 |
| γ8 | -0.0003 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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