V-Lab
adidas AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
29.04%
decreased by 1.21%
1 Week
29.11%
decreased by 1.14%
1 Month
29.38%
decreased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 4.61 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.1215 | 0.95 |
| αARCH | 0.0488 | 5.89*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9892 | 83.79*** |
| νDF | 4.6089 | 1.79* |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1215 | 0.95 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0488 | 5.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9892 | 83.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6089 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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