V-Lab
DHL AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
18.34%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
18.84%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
20.46%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9434 | 9.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 7.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 80.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
29 days
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