V-Lab
DHL Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
23.73%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
24.10%
increased by 0.27%
1 Month
25.14%
increased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8049 | 4.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0753 | 6.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 | 49.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.2205 | -3.18*** |
| γ2 | 0.3967 | 3.99*** |
| γ3 | -0.3151 | -5.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.2225 | 3.85*** |
| γ5 | -0.1421 | -2.47** |
| γ6 | 0.1342 | 2.30** |
| γ7 | -0.1289 | -2.25** |
| γ8 | 0.0641 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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