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V-Lab

DHL Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

23.73%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

24.10%

increased by 0.27%

1 Month

25.14%

increased by 1.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DHL Group S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 17, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8049
4.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0753
6.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8733
49.78***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2205
-3.18***
γ20.3967
3.99***
γ3-0.3151
-5.14***
γ40.2225
3.85***
γ5-0.1421
-2.47**
γ60.1342
2.30**
γ7-0.1289
-2.25**
γ80.0641
1.50

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days