DHL AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
23.84%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
23.97%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
24.41%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 5.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9881 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.0658 | 6.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9834 | 79.48*** |
| νDF | 5.5288 | 1.54 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9881 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0658 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9834 | 79.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5288 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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