Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
41.91%
increased by 3.27%
1 Week
42.18%
increased by 3.54%
1 Month
43.15%
increased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 01:25 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 5.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 10.1402 | 1.45 |
| αscore | 0.0715 | 7.49*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9853 | 100.90*** |
| νDF | 5.3257 | 1.90* |
0.985
Persistence47d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 10.1402 | 1.45 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0715 | 7.49*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9853 | 100.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3257 | 1.90* |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
47 days
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