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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

42.71%

increased by 1.17%

1 Week

42.96%

increased by 1.42%

1 Month

43.88%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 4.89 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst10.4719
1.30
αARCH0.0716
8.12***
βGARCH0.9864
97.10***
νDF4.8853
2.32**

0.986

Persistence

51d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.4719
1.30
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0716
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9864
97.10***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8853
2.32**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

51 days