V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
42.71%
increased by 1.17%
1 Week
42.96%
increased by 1.42%
1 Month
43.88%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.89 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 51-day half-lifev = 4.89 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 10.4719 | 1.30 |
| αARCH | 0.0716 | 8.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9864 | 97.10*** |
| νDF | 4.8853 | 2.32** |
0.986
Persistence51d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4719 | 1.30 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9864 | 97.10*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8853 | 2.32** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
51 days
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