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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

41.91%

increased by 3.27%

1 Week

42.18%

increased by 3.54%

1 Month

43.15%

increased by 4.51%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 01:25 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 47 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 47 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 47-day half-lifev = 5.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run10.1402
1.45
αscore0.0715
7.49***
βpersistence0.9853
100.90***
νDF5.3257
1.90*

0.985

Persistence

47d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

10.1402
1.45
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0715
7.49***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9853
100.90***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3257
1.90*

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

47 days