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V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

43.92%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

44.13%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

44.92%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.4885
5.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0715
32.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9865
389.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8818
9.28***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days