V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
48.50%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Week
48.58%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
48.88%
decreased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.87 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.5226 | 5.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 32.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9866 | 389.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8742 | 9.31*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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