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V-Lab
V-Lab

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

34.65%

increased by 4.06%

1 Week

35.20%

increased by 4.61%

1 Month

37.14%

increased by 6.55%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:26 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 4.88 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst10.3978
1.31
αARCH0.0718
8.10***
βGARCH0.9863
96.47***
νDF4.8841
2.31**

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.3978
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0718
8.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9863
96.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8841
2.31**

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days