V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.92%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
44.13%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Month
44.92%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 51 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 51 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.88 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4885 | 5.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 32.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9865 | 389.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8818 | 9.28*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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