DHL AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
21.06%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.34%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
22.26%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 226% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 226% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0666 | 4.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.0278 | 2.32** |
| βGARCH | 0.9164 | 82.17*** |
| γleverage | 0.0630 | 2.79*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0666 | 4.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0278 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9164 | 82.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0630 | 2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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