V-Lab
DHL AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.43%
increased by 0.19%
1 Week
18.88%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
20.32%
increased by 2.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 17, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 227% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 227% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0661 | 4.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0278 | 2.32** |
| βGARCH | 0.9165 | 82.18*** |
| γleverage | 0.0632 | 2.80*** |
0.976
Persistence28d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0661 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0278 | 2.32** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9165 | 82.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0632 | 2.80*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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