BASF SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.75%
increased by 2.31%
1 Week
25.29%
increased by 2.85%
1 Month
26.97%
increased by 4.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1198 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0689 | 8.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8991 | 78.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0468 | 2.96*** |
| γ2 | -0.0858 | -3.63*** |
| γ3 | 0.0698 | 4.78*** |
| γ4 | -0.0518 | -4.30*** |
| γ5 | 0.0400 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -0.0288 | -3.38*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities