V-Lab
BASF SE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
27.38%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
27.73%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
28.85%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 21 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1143 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0684 | 8.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 78.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0463 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.0851 | -3.61*** |
| γ3 | 0.0694 | 4.77*** |
| γ4 | -0.0516 | -4.31*** |
| γ5 | 0.0400 | 3.39*** |
| γ6 | -0.0290 | -3.44*** |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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