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V-Lab

BlockFin Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

62.58%

decreased by 1.91%

1 Week

63.01%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Month

64.70%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of BlockFin Holdings Ltd APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1062
1.92*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1015
3.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8985
57.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0345
0.41
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9967
5.81***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-