V-Lab
BlockFin Holdings Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
62.58%
decreased by 1.91%
1 Week
63.01%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
64.70%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 06:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 25, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1062 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1015 | 3.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8985 | 57.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0345 | 0.41 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9967 | 5.81*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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