V-Lab
Zhejiang Jianfeng Group Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
28.24%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
29.24%
increased by 2.45%
1 Month
31.95%
increased by 5.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 28, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3721 | 4.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1069 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8417 | 48.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0688 | -3.25*** |
| γ2 | 0.1481 | 4.49*** |
| γ3 | -0.1343 | -5.17*** |
| γ4 | 0.0751 | 3.18*** |
| γ5 | -0.0334 | -1.46 |
| γ6 | 0.0425 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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