V-Lab
Marketingforce Management Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
112.52%
decreased by 5.89%
1 Week
116.75%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Month
117.64%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 16, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4789 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0895 | 1.72* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 26.4563 | 3.31*** |
| γ2 | -32.9427 | -2.73*** |
| γ3 | -2.0653 | -0.21 |
| γ4 | 19.9165 | 1.93* |
| γ5 | -17.1645 | -1.52 |
| γ6 | 12.5443 | 0.89 |
Persistence:
0.090
Half-life:
0 days
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