Datamatics Global Services Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
38.55%
decreased by 0.85%
1 Week
40.38%
increased by 0.98%
1 Month
43.23%
increased by 3.83%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9714 | 5.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1071 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7384 | 16.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1490 | 1.48 |
| γ2 | -0.3784 | -2.64*** |
| γ3 | 0.5144 | 6.29*** |
| γ4 | -0.4948 | -6.89*** |
| γ5 | 0.2985 | 4.05*** |
| γ6 | -0.1082 | -1.42 |
| γ7 | 0.0084 | 0.10 |
| γ8 | -0.0042 | -0.03 |
Persistence:
0.846
Half-life:
4 days
Other Datamatics Global Services Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities