Datamatics Global Services GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
48.48%
decreased by 4.67%
1 Week
49.52%
decreased by 3.63%
1 Month
52.35%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.3140 | 5.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 20.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9469 | 102.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3003 | 11.14*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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