V-Lab
Datamatics Global Services GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.45%
decreased by 2.51%
1 Week
39.12%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
45.93%
increased by 6.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 13 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 13 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.30 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.2931 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0989 | 20.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9472 | 102.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2985 | 11.13*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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