V-Lab
Investeringsselskabet af 3. november 2025 A/S Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
70.74%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Week
76.98%
increased by 4.46%
1 Month
81.88%
increased by 9.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 21, 1991 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5646 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2373 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4485 | 7.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2760 | 2.18** |
| γ2 | -0.3466 | -2.13** |
| γ3 | 0.0299 | 0.37 |
| γ4 | 0.2336 | 2.84*** |
| γ5 | -0.4055 | -4.45*** |
| γ6 | 0.2662 | 3.35*** |
| γ7 | -0.0693 | -0.78 |
| γ8 | 0.0752 | 0.67 |
| γ9 | -0.1019 | -0.90 |
| γ10 | 0.2270 | 0.71 |
Persistence:
0.686
Half-life:
2 days
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