V-Lab
Grupo Comercial Chedraui SA de CV Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.48%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
19.12%
increased by 0.87%
1 Month
20.79%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 30, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7681 | 11.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0794 | 6.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8637 | 40.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0060 | -2.85*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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