V-Lab
Investeringsselskabet af 3. november 2025 A/S Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
45.77%
decreased by 2.49%
1 Week
47.87%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
50.19%
increased by 1.93%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 21, 1991 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5652 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2070 | 5.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5597 | 7.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2581 | 1.95* |
| γ2 | -0.3175 | -1.86* |
| γ3 | 0.0166 | 0.20 |
| γ4 | 0.2270 | 2.69*** |
| γ5 | -0.3849 | -4.10*** |
| γ6 | 0.2440 | 2.91*** |
| γ7 | -0.0459 | -0.47 |
| γ8 | 0.0353 | 0.27 |
| γ9 | -0.0105 | -0.08 |
| γ10 | -0.0530 | -0.53 |
Persistence:
0.767
Half-life:
3 days
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