V-Lab
Investeringsselskabet af 3. november 2025 A/S Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
53.69%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
55.12%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
56.80%
increased by 3.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 21, 1991 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5551 | 2.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2003 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5762 | 7.27*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.2579 | 1.93* |
| γ2 | -0.3146 | -1.83* |
| γ3 | 0.0101 | 0.12 |
| γ4 | 0.2335 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.3868 | -4.01*** |
| γ6 | 0.2407 | 2.79*** |
| γ7 | -0.0400 | -0.39 |
| γ8 | 0.0194 | 0.14 |
| γ9 | 0.0315 | 0.21 |
| γ10 | -0.1021 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.776
Half-life:
3 days
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